Report Shows Growth for Drones in Agriculture but Less than Expected

According to ABI Research, a market-foresight advisory firm providing strategic guidance on transformative technologies, the explosive growth forecasted for small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) in the Agriculture industry is hugely over-estimated. ABI Research's projected revenue for sUAV agricultural services is US$3.2 billion by 2025.

Agriculture was touted as one of the first industries that would leverage the rapid development of commercial-grade small sUAVs and incorporate them into its practices. Early use cases for an aerial analytics platform were evident to drone solution providers, farmers, and agronomists. As a result, large numbers of drone solution providers have entered the market over the past 5-7 years, either specialising in agricultural solutions or having it as part of their wider portfolio in anticipation for growth.

“The overenthusiasm and exaggeration in the early stages of the industry should be subdued by the fact that drones are not the only source of aerial imaging,” said Rian Whitton, Principal Analyst at ABI Research. “Satellites and manned aircraft have been providing similar services for years, and have some identifiable advantages. This emphasises a more important point that the discussion really does not centre on the hardware of drones, but on the actionable insights that are garnered by data-gathering.”

ABI Research predicts that the short-term future will harbour considerable change in the drone-agriculture ecosystem. The large number of current vendors will likely be trimmed down into a more consolidated market, as aerospace giants like Airbus and Boeing further involve themselves in delivering commercial sUAV solutions.

“For the foreseeable forecast, one can expect drones to become more popular, but manned aircraft and satellites will still play a critical role in the aerial imaging market.” Whitton continued.

In most cases, therefore, agricultural companies will shift capital responsibility to the vendors, who will provide a service for aerial imaging, analysis (predictive and prescriptive), and action (spraying or planting). This should not be characterised as drones-as-a-service (DaaS), given that many companies already providing this service are using imagery from satellites or manned aircraft. Rather it would be more accurate to call it aerial-imaging-as-a-service (AIaaS) including data capture, prediction, prescription, and potentially action.

Within a small timeframe, the sUAV Agriculture ecosystem has evolved from a select number of hobbyists and drone manufacturers, to a multi-billion dollar industry that is now serviced by the world's largest aerospace giants. "Commentators, investors and onlookers should not let the many caveats and the legitimate issue of industry hype distract from what is an exciting technological and commercial development for a key primary industry," Whitton concludes.

These findings are from ABI Research's Small Unmanned Aerial Systems for Agriculture Applications report. This report is part of the company's Robotics, Automation & Intelligent Systems research service, which includes research, data, and analyst insights.